A projected lockdown of greater than 4 weeks would reduce deaths but would bring diminishing returns in reducing peak pressure on hospital services. From Nov 5, 2020, a 4-week Wales-type lockdown with schools remaining open- similar to the lockdown measures announced in England in November, 2020-was projected to further reduce hospital admissions to 186â℀00 (179â℀00-193â℀00) and deaths to 36â℈00 (34â℉00-38â℈00).

FINDINGS: We estimated a reduction in the effective reproduction number (Rt) of 2% (95% credible interval 0-4) for tier 2, 10% (6-14) for tier 3, 35% (30-41) for a Northern Ireland-stringency lockdown with schools closed, and 44% (37-49) for a Wales-stringency lockdown with schools closed. We analysed mobility (Google Community Mobility) and social contact (CoMix study) data to estimate the effect of tiered restrictions implemented in England, and of lockdowns implemented in Northern Ireland and Wales, in October, 2020, and projected epidemiological scenarios for England up to March 31, 2021. METHODS: We fit an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to data on hospital admissions and hospital bed occupancy (ISARIC4C/COVID-19 Clinical Information Network, National Health Service England), seroprevalence (Office for National Statistics, UK Biobank, REACT-2 study), virology (REACT-1 study), and deaths ( Public Health England) across the seven NHS England regions from March 1, to Oct 13, 2020. We examined the impact of these tiered restrictions, and alternatives for lockdown stringency, timing, and duration, on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ( SARS-CoV-2) transmission and hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19. Edmunds WJ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ĪBSTRACT BACKGROUND: A second wave of COVID-19 cases in autumn, 2020, in England led to localised, tiered restrictions (so-called alert levels) and, subsequently, a second national lockdown.Jit M Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.Semple MG National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK Department of Respiratory Medicine, Alder Hey Children'.

Russell TW Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.Jarvis CI Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.Electronic address: Barnard RC Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Davies NG Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

A second lockdown